Mets’ Fab Four Won’t Pitch in a Game Until March 5th: By Ethan Marshall

The Mets have and will continue to be cautious in the workload of their young starting rotation.  Terry Collins told reporters today that Noah Syndergaard, Matt Harvey, Jacob deGrom, and Steven Matz won’t be appearing in a spring training game until as early as March 5th, and that Zack Wheeler could be seeing action in the Grapefruit League as early as March 8th.  In an effort to keep them healthy, the Mets’ starting rotation has been kept to a lighter workload so far this spring.

Each of the young starters dealt with injuries in 2016 following their run into the 2015 World Series.  Harvey was very ineffective before he was diagnosed with thoracic outlet syndrome, requiring season-ending surgery.  deGrom experienced fatigue early in the season, with his fastball velocity decreasing from the mid-to-upper-90s to the lower 90s. deGrom would catch the injury bug in September when he required elbow surgery to move the ulnar collateral ligament.  Matz was diagnosed with a large bone spur in his pitching arm early last season.  He attempted to pitch through it, but was eventually shut down in September after missing about a month due to a shoulder impingement.  Wheeler hasn’t pitched in a major league game since September of 2014.  After undergoing Tommy John surgery in 2015, Wheeler suffered a series of setbacks in his rehab in 2016, before being shut down.  Syndergaard was the only one from the young staff able to make it through the season, though he did so with a small bone spur in his pitching arm.  There is also worry that Syndergaard may one day require Tommy John surgery.  He is the only one of this young and dynamic rotation to have never had the surgery.

The Mets understand that they need to be conservative in how they use their starters this spring.  They need to make sure the rotation is healthy and fresh, but not rusty.  The Mets’ 2015 pennant-winning run likely contributed to at least some of the injuries on the starting core.  With a whole offseason to recuperate, the Mets are optimistic that their rotation can stay intact this year and possibly lead them back to the World Series.  There is no need to rush these pitchers into games.  They don’t need to be throwing every single workout day.  2017 would mark the first time that all five of the Mets’ prized pitchers would be healthy and active at the same time.

Still a Billion-Dollar Rotation? Who can the Mets Keep Long-Term?

During the 2015-2016 MLB offseason, 5 of 6 MLB executives pegged the value of the young Mets starting rotation as being worth at least a billion dollars.  However, this came after the young studs helped to lead the Mets to the World Series.  Since then, the value of some of these pitchers has likely diminished.  All of them dealt with injuries to some degree last season.  The real question the Mets need to ask themselves is who they want to sign to extensions in the near future, and who they will be willing to part with in trades or free agency.

Matt Harvey may be the least likely to land an extension with the Mets.  Despite the fact that he had a miserable 2016 due to the fact that he was pitching with thoracic outlet syndrome, he would still be likely to ask for a long and expensive contract.  Harvey will be the first of the young studs to be eligible for free agency, with his contract ending after the 2018 season.  Perhaps the biggest obstacle that the Mets would face if they were to try to re-sign him or give him an extension is Harvey’s agent, Scott Boras.  Boras is known to try to get his clients deals that would be considered by many to be valued much higher than what the player may deserve to get.  He also notoriously screwed the Mets over when he represented Oliver Perez and got him to re-sign with the Mets for a three-year, $36 million contract after the 2008 season.  Perez underperformed, showed less effort, and refused to be sent to the minors when he struggled in the majors.  The contract Boras got for Perez became a headache for the Mets organization.  Additionally, Boras is known to prefer that his clients opt to go for free agency rather than to sign extensions.  The few extensions signed by Boras clients include Jered Weaver’s 5-year, $85 million extension in 2011 (in which he went against the advice of Boras) and Stephen Strasburg’s 7-year, $175 million contract in 2016.  It wouldn’t surprise me if the Mets attempt to trade Harvey after the 2017 season in order to gain value back for a player they know they probably won’t be able to re-sign.

Zack Wheeler would become a free agent after the 2019 season.  He may be of the least value of the Mets starting rotation at the moment, mostly due to the fact that he hasn’t pitched in a major league game in September of 2014.  As a result of him being undervalued at the moment, the Mets may have a chance to lock him down long-term within the next few years.  Wheeler was at one point viewed by scouts to be better than Matt Harvey.  For him, he just has to be able to stay healthy and consistent.  2017 may be a very important season for Wheeler in order to prove himself as a talented major league pitcher.

Jacob DeGrom is scheduled to be a free agent following the 2020 season.  He, along with Noah Syndergaard , have been the most open to talking about contract extensions with the Mets.  Considering how many years DeGrom has left on his current contract, the Mets don’t seem to be in too much of a hurry to start talking extensions with him.  Injuries led to some poor performance for DeGrom in the 2016 season.  Despite this, DeGrom still had an ERA of 3.04, including tossing his first career complete game, a one-hit shutout against the Phillies.  It can be argued that DeGrom may have been the most affected by the World Series hangover, considering his velocity early in the season was lower than normal for him.  Regardless, he stands as the second ace of the talented rotation at this point, showing that he has been able to pitch well even when he doesn’t have his best stuff.  He has quietly become one of the best pitchers in baseball, and hopefully the Mets reward him soon with a long-term deal.

Noah Syndergaard, arguably the most talented of the rotation, is due to become a free agent following the 2021 season.  As it stands now, he is the guy that would likely get the ball on opening day.  Despite the health concern with him due to the fact that he is the only one in the rotation not to get Tommy John surgery, Syndergaard was the healthiest of the young starting pitchers in the 2016 season.  Despite being diagnosed with a small bone spur on his pitching arm, Syndergaard continued his stellar pitching, even earning the ball for the Wild Card game against the Giants.  Syndergaard showed in that game and in the 2015 postseason that he can be trusted to take the ball in big situations.  Despite the fact that the Mets lost the Wild Card game to the Giants, Syndergaard was able to match Madison Bumgarner, not allowing a hit until two outs in the 6th.  Syndergaard would end up allowing just two hits and three walks while striking out ten batters in seven shutout innings.  He has the potential to be the next Nolan Ryan.  The Mets hope that since Syndergaard is built like Ryan, maybe he can avoid needing Tommy John surgery like Ryan as well.  It’s no secret that Syndergaard enjoys being in New York.  Hopefully, the Mets can keep him in New York.  In my opinion, he is the one that the Mets can’t let get away from them more than anyone else.  There aren’t many pitchers with the talent and ability that Syndergaard has displayed.

Steven Matz, like Syndergaard, will be a free agent following the 2021 season.  Matz’s value has likely been lowered since the 2015 World Series, not due to his performance, but due to the fact that he has yet to be able to stay healthy.  Throughout his pitching career, Matz has dealt with several different injuries in his journey to the majors.  Matz started his 2016 season looking like he might take the Rookie of the Year award from Cory Seager.  Unfortunately, after a game in which he shut out the rival Nationals over 8 innings, Matz was  diagnosed with a large bone spur in his pitching arm that would require surgery at some point.  While Matz would try to pitch through the injury, he wasn’t as effective for the rest of the season.  After an August game in which he carried a no-hitter into the 8th inning against the Padres, Matz was unable to pitch for the rest of the season due to issues with his shoulder.  While the Mets still have plenty of time before they need to think about discussing a contract extension with Matz, one advantage that they may have is that Matz may be willing to take a slight home-town discount due to the fact that Matz was born and raised in Long Island and grew up a die-hard Mets fan.  He is living his boyhood dream right now as a stud pitcher for the Mets.  He just needs to stay healthy.

The Mets still have plenty of time before they need to worry about contract extension talks with most of these pitchers.  Unless they are willing to spend a lot of money, the odds are that the Mets won’t be able to keep one or two of these pitchers.  The Mets window to win is basically as long as these young starters are able to perform to what is expected of them while staying healthy.  The billion dollar rotation has the potential to win the Mets at least one World Series title.  We’ll see if they can prove their potential value come 2017.

How will the Mets Starting Rotation Look Like in 2017?

There are still questions as to who will begin the 2017 season as the 5th starter for the Mets rotation.  The Mets have a decision to make between Zack Wheeler, Seth Lugo, and Robert Gsellman.  The Mets can’t go wrong with whichever one they choose.

Wheeler has shown signs of the hype around him when he was ranked as the 11th best prospect in all of baseball after the 2012 season by Baseball America.  While he was a little wild early in his career, Wheeler began to show more command of his pitches by the middle of the 2014 season.  Wheeler established himself as a pitcher with a lot of talent and potential at the major league level on June 19th, 2014, exactly a year and a day after he made his MLB debut.  On this day, Wheeler threw a complete game 3-hit shutout against the Marlins, facing only one over the minimum.  Going into that game, Wheeler had been struggling, with a 2-7 record and an ERA well over 4.00.  From this game on, Wheeler rebounded and dominated for the rest of the season, finishing his first full season with a record of 11-11 and an ERA of 3.54.  The concern with Wheeler going into 2017 is that he hasn’t pitched in a major league game since 2014, due to Tommy John surgery shortly before the start of the 2015 season and suffering multiple setbacks while attempting to come back in 2016 before being shut down.  The Mets coaching staff will likely be keeping a close eye on him when spring training starts.  Depending on how he looks during spring training and where his velocity and command are, Wheeler will likely either start the 2017 season in the bullpen or be inserted into the role of the 5th starter.  Even if Wheeler ends up starting the season in the bullpen, he may end up returning to the rotation when he shakes off his rust and returns to looking like the stud pitcher he was in the second half of the 2014 season.

With Lugo and Gsellman, it’s a coin flip for the Mets as far as who starts and who goes to the bullpen.  Assuming Wheeler starts out in the bullpen, the Mets may choose to insert the pitcher that pitched better in spring training into the 5th starter’s role, while putting the other one in the bullpen.  Going by what I saw from Lugo and Gsellman last season, I would choose to have Lugo in as the 5th starter because I thought he was better at keeping his pitch count low while also staying effective late into ballgames.  I also feel that Lugo has better off-speed pitches than Gsellman, especially his curveball, which has so much rotation on it that it set a statcast record at 3,498 rpm.  Gsellman can still be very useful out of the bullpen, either as a long man or a 7th or 8th inning man.  The same can also be said about Zack Wheeler.

The way that Lugo, Gsellman, and Wheeler perform in spring training will likely determine what role each of the pitchers will begin the season at.  In the case of Lugo and Gsellman, they need to prove to the other players and coaches around the league that their 2016 seasons weren’t flukes.  If they can establish themselves in the same way that Jacob DeGrom did in 2014, than the Mets may have one of the most dominant rotations and bullpens in major league baseball in 2017, as long as the rotation and bullpen stays healthy and consistent.

What Should the Mets do About Their Bullpen?

With spring training less than two months away, the Mets are still in need of bullpen help.  With Jeurys Familia likely being suspended for at least the first 30 games of the season, the Mets are without a setup man since Addison Reed will be stepping in to the closer’s role for Familia.  While Sandy Alderson has expressed a desire to lower the Mets payroll to under $140 million.  As it stands now, the Mets payroll stands at just over $150 million.

It’s no secret that the Mets are currently trying to trade Jay Bruce for a good reliever or good prospect.  This would potentially allow for the Mets to get their payroll under $140 million while also solving their problem with relief.  Unfortunately, Jay Bruce’s value dropped due to the Jason Bay-like performance he had as a member of the Mets when he was acquired at the trade deadline.  However, I believe that his value will rise when the free agency outfield market gets thinner this offseason.  The Mets need to remind potential trade partners that Bruce hit over 30 homers last season while driving in 99.  In addition to this, Bruce will only be 30 years old by early April.  He is in the prime of his career.

I feel that the perfect trade partners for the Mets would either be the Orioles or the White Sox.  I feel the Mets should offer Bruce and Kevin Plawecki to the Orioles for Brad Brach, whom the Mets have already expressed interest in.  I would offer the same two players to the White Sox for David Robertson.  The issue for the Mets with Robertson is that he is making a little more than what Bruce is currently making.  The Mets would have to keep their payroll between $140 and $160 million.  Both the White Sox and Orioles are in need of an outfielder and a long term catcher.  In the White Sox’s case, they could flip Bruce at the deadline for high-level prospects assuming he raises his value.  I feel that, in the White Sox’s case, they could get a lot more at the trade deadline for Jay Bruce than they would for David Robertson.  In the case of Plawecki, while the Mets have just about given up on him, there are still other teams that may believe he can still live up to his potential.  This is evident in the fact that his name was brought up during the winter meetings.

Another option the Mets have for their bullpen would be to try to re-sign Jerry Blevins.  As it stands now, Blevins is demanding a 3-year deal, which Alderson doesn’t want to commit to with a reliever.  If I were Alderson, I would offer Blevins a 2-year deal in the $15-$25 million range.  He may be willing to accept this kind of offer since he doesn’t seem to be valued as highly by other teams due to the fact that he is still on the market.  Many teams, like the Mets, may be reluctant to give Blevins the third year.  I would love for the Mets to be able to hang on to Blevins.  He reminds me a little bit of Pedro Feliciano in that he has the ability to get both lefties and righties out.

As it stands now, it is probable that the Mets would have Zack Wheeler and either Robert Gsellman or Seth Lugo pitching the 7th and 8th innings.  While these options aren’t bad, I feel that getting a more accomplished reliever would be a better option.  This would allow for more flexibility for the Mets in the back end of their starting rotation.  The 2016 season taught the Mets that they need as many good starting pitchers with them as they can get.  Gsellman and Lugo played key roles in getting the Mets to the playoffs in 2016.  The Mets may end up asking them to do the same thing again in a different way in 2017 if they can’t fill out the hole in their bullpen from external options.